A Covid Cleft Stick for Sturgeon & #Scexit?

It has been an interesting period since the onset of the Covid pandemic in Scotland. As always, the constitution has still been a significant aspect of Scottish (and increasingly UK) politics.

There have been a number of polls in the period relating to the potential for SNP Holyrood seats and the desire for #Scexit, generally showing a mild increase in support for them both.

It’s hard to escape the subliminal effect that ‘The Daily Sturgeon Show’ has had on public opinion (both here and in England), she stands there and sounds fully in control and always expresses massive empathy for those affected by covid. Her words, often lengthy, have a serious tone and her expression is one of deep concern (no doubt she is concerned), but the reality of her pronouncements is somewhat different.

When you look at the detail there is no real difference between Scotland and the UK’s (and Englands in some respects, but not all) performance. To say we have ‘performed better’ is a lie. We’ve actually done the same things at the same or similar times and just, at times, described them differently.

The annoying aspect of her daily promo is that the media appear neutered, not many have the gumption or bravery to tackle her head on, and for those few brave souls who do, there is no follow up question allowed following her very lengthy (clever) replies, that to me seem rehearsed.

Where are the hard questions on Covid care home deaths? Poor testing levels and the distribution of UK Covid aid? Where is the recognition of the total UK financial commitment to Scotland via direct and indirect assistance? Furlough, building the Nightingale Hospital (named as some obscure Scottish nurse) and the UK Armed forces mobile testing facilities? Where is the thank you?

It seems as though there is nothing that can stop the nationalist bandwagon rolling on to a successful #Scexit vote some time soon after the next Holyrood election. Fear not faint heart, it ain’t quite gonna be that easy for her.

Two major factors (apart of course from those of us who oppose her dragging us out of our UK) will come into play. One. It amuses me that many nationalists (and some less than well informed Remainers) don’t realise we, the UK including Scotland, have actually left the EU. They will however realise this fact come 31/1/21 deal or no deal, we are out, the EU will no longer be an issue in 2021, Scotland is out, if we separate we are still out. We would do things, like running a huge deficit and using the Pound (Sterlingisation) that means we would stay out – remember via the SNP Growth Commission Report EU membership is only an “aspiration” (look it up).

Two. Covid. The two charts above show us the reality of Scotland’s ‘performance’ or lack of it, in relation to her handling of the Covid crisis. When this lack of performance and lack of any real deviation from the UK’s approach finally dawns, as it will by May next year, the Covid feel good factor will also have evaporated. Add to this the ongoing Salmond tribulations and internal SNP splits re policy and it is not going to be an easy time for her, indeed, allegations re what she knew about the Salmond allegations have emerged in the media today (@SKYNews).

“But but but…” the nationalists will say “we are ‘surging’ ahead in the #Scexit polls and we will win loads of seats according to voting intention polls”. Well, there’s a dribble (not even a wave never mind a surge) of additional support in the last three Panelbase polls – note there have only been 9 polls this year, 6 of them from Panelbase and the last 5 were from Panelbase in fairly short order. There is no 54% for #Scexit, it’s 47%, and as we all know, when push comes to shove in binary referenda the uncertain voters opt for the status quo, which is exactly what happened in 2014.

The harsh reality for nationalists is that the game for them is actually lost. The SNP’s own internal target to ensure victory is to get desire for #Scexit up to 60% in the polls for a 12 month period, there is not a cat in hells chance of that happening this side of 2021 as there is only 10 months left. Note below the reality of when #Scexit has been in the lead in polling.

She must be very worried re her next steps. She says she wants a second #Scexit referendum and that she wants it to be legal, that is with the UK’s approval and via the issuing of a section 30 to give legal legitimacy to the outcome. Many of her troops are getting tired of this and want a referendum without a section 30, or even UDI, both options she has firmly discounted. She knows either approach would be frowned upon by the international community and creates huge internal UK and Scottish problems. Her options are limited and I wonder sometimes if she actually knows in her own heart that the game is lost?

Her options are limited. Does she go into Holyrood ’21 on a 100% commitment (a manifesto with #Scexit as the primary promise) to demand a second #Scexit vote if they get a majority of seats? Even if she did do that and got a majority of seats (a mandate could be claimed), it’s clear the UK would say no and refer to her generation/lifetime commitment given last time. Both May and Johnson have both said no and that it would be too soon for a repeat.

Does she just put a #scexit option lower down the manifesto? This weakens her claim, as even if she got a majority of seats the ‘mandate’ would be denied.

To have any chance of a 2021 mandate that would carry weight within the UK, she has to go for broke, she must base the manifesto on #Scexit and try for 51% of the electorate on the day, this of course was not achieved in the last two Holyrood elections, seats yes in 2011, votes no, failing on seats and votes in 2016. If she succeeded then perhaps the UK would reconsider, but any ensuing Edinburgh Agreement would be significantly sharper and pro status quo than the last one. It is bound to be very definitive re a third vote if the outcome was (as it would be) Remain UK, a generation spelt out in actual years, say 35. The vote itself would be more than likely based on the question “As a British Citizen do you wish to Remain in your UK – Option 1 Remain UK – Option 2 Leave UK. Yes No has long gone. It is also pretty definite that a hurdle rate for a #Scexit win would be applied, say 60%, and that a turnout hurdle of 75% would also be applied – this still means that only 45% of the electorate could drag us out of our UK, so it is a very fair hurdle combination. Alternatively (or in some combination) there may be a confirmatory vote stipulated, which would mean that if Leave won, once the key details of leaving negotiations are completed, there would be another vote to make sure it is what we wanted.

An option for her recently, according to Prof. John Curtice (not so sure I always agree with his analysis on Scottish polling), is to win a seat majority and then take the UK refusal for another #Scexit vote to the UK Supreme Court (thereby acknowledging the UKSC is the ultimate UK court for constitutional and non criminal matters). She may well think of this tack as a win win, but I don’t think so, to her more impatient supporters she is saying she will abide by the UK’s verdict, if she wins she then has to win a #Scexit vote then negotiated with a UK Government that will be highly antagonistic, that won’t go well. If she loses the case then she would of course just blame Westminster and hope she can have another go at securing a real mandate in 2026. The whole thing is highly problematical for her, and the cause of it is the ongoing lack of real #Scexit support, fudged polls (by ignoring the uncertain voters) is not convincing the electorate at large.