With Holyrood 2021 fast approaching, it’s worth taking stock of the state of Scottish politics and what it means for us and the next five years of our Scottish Parliament and our politics in general.
Basically it’s goosed. Scotland faces, even if the Nationalists (SNP/Alba/Greens) only get a minority of the votes (less than 50% on less than a 50% voter turnout) getting royally goosed, again. We’ll suffer another 5 years of appalling division and nationalist hatred of our UK, the UK we, the majority of the Scottish people, chose in a once in a lifetime/generation vote only 6.5 years ago. The arguments have not moved on, the economics have deteriorated and the Nationalist lies and spin have never stopped for a second. They have no logical case.
Our problem is a devolution settlement that has been kidnapped and bastardised by Nationalists, morphing it into a completely binary choice between remaining in or leaving our UK, #Scexit. Scexit destroys all other considerations for the Nationalists, it’s their all consuming passion/obsession and their primary objective regardless of the cost to future Scottish generations. Their constitution shows how Scexit obsessed they are, clause 2a is actually their primary clause.
The Nationalists have no real overall political affiliations, they are experts at jumping onto any bandwagon that gets them votes, one time left, next time right, in fact anything perceived as popular. It doesn’t matter to them as they don’t deliver unless it’s an obvious bribe, such as offering free computers to kids and 4% NHS pay rises, Baby Boxes, free this & free that paid for by UK tax payers. The SNP can pander to the uninformed, as our (pathetic) Scottish Government (ne administration) they don’t really have to pay a penny, our UK pays for it all. We earn way, way less than we spend on essentials, we’ve done so since the SNP came to power in 2007. Yes, that’s right, 2007. So if they get in again that’ll be 19 years they’ll have made Scottish politics all about Scexit. Without UK pooling and sharing we could not even afford to police ourselves.
So where does this leave us? Basically up the creek without a paddle unless we actually DO something positive about it. We face yet another 5 years of divisive division while Scotland continues to suffer. Before Nationalism took hold like a cancer we had three competing main political parties, Labour, Tories and LibDems, essentially Left, Right and Middle in their approach to politics, but all focused on the same agenda, improving the lives of the people, their voters, us.
Regardless of what Nationalists say, the election is going to be primarily about Scexit. When the other parties voice their concerns about separation and another referendum vote, they are accused by the hypocritical SNP of making it not about politics but about seperation, which makes me think they think we are stupid, look back up at their constitution, it’s all about Scexit and their daily politics and their (her) daily Covid wibble show is also all about Scexit. The main parties can’t win, as if they try, as they all have, to make the election about ‘normal’ politics, it always comes back to Scexit.
So what are the outcome scenarios? 1) Nationalists lose their minority government status, 2) Nationalists win a majority of votes (not seats, seats don’t count in an election forced into a binary process structured around Scexit).
Scenario 1 is unlikely to happen now (especially now Alba and A4U are in play) as the Nationalists are now playing tactical voting, with Alba standing in the List vote only (looking to take the ineffective SNP List votes) & the Greens standing mainly in the List (interestingly Alba could destroy the Greens as they are only tolerated by the SNP).
This tactical approach (welcomed by the SNP or not) makes scenario 2 more likely than before Alba surfaced. Below is the outcome (ignoring the potential damaging impact A4U would have on the Anti-Nat vote unless all Anti-Nat parties accommodated their involvement) if Alba were to gain 30% of the SNP regional vote;
UK support has options, we either let them carry on and suffer a further 5 years of division (Alba or not the SNP will likely still form a minority government) and repeatedly resist a second referendum plea, as there’ll be no real mandate. It’s unlikely the SNP will fight the election on a Scexit only manifesto, it will be ‘understood’ but not up front and centre. We can take the fight to them and get them out, by getting the main parties to fight tactically, examining each constituency seat and list area and agreeing to stand down, allowing the most likely Anti-Nat candidates the chance to take seats. The Tories (very badly via open letters etc) have suggested they are open to this approach. To work, Labour & the LibDem’s, for the sake of Scotland and the Union, should ignore the poor Tory open letter communication and bite the bullet of cooperation. Listen to George Galloway even if you don’t involve him in a pact, the concept (as #SNPOUt has said for years) is everything. If Labour (essential to the tactical option) refuse to play ball the Tories could act independently, but I don’t think that is a very likely scenario, it takes two to tango.
So, there IS a way to game the system, the Nats have shown this very clearly. If we game it and win, we can all move on with life. If however the Nats have the better game and win the most seats, we’ll just have to grin and bear it, there will be no second Scexit vote as seats will not deliver them a mandate, but we all suffer their whinging division again. If however the Nationalist game plays well and we walk off the field, then they may well get more than 50% of the vote (particularly if we have a low turnout favouring the Nats). This would deliver a ‘moral’ mandate of sorts and would pressure UKGov to respond. My advice would be, even though there is no legal precedent and the constitution is reserved to the UKGov, and the response of ‘now is not the time’ being perfectly logical, I would manage a delivery of a final (for a real generation) Scexit vote.
Do I want one? No. Should there be one? No. Would there be a legal basis for one? No. Can we hold one and win and chuck the issue into the long grass for a real generation? Absolutely Yes!
We could agree to provide a Section 30 once a second Edinburgh Agreement had been reached, if no agreement were reachable then a vote wouldn’t happen. The EA2 would be much clearer and firmer in it’s detail, utilising the elements of turnout threshold, win threshold and a confirmatory vote post leaving negotiations if LeaveUK became the electorates choice. Other issues would be who could vote, ie British Citizens in Scotland or those with settled status and our Armed Forces abroad along with minum age requirement. It would also stipulate the the minimum time period before another S30 could be granted, a generation, 35 years, allowing Scotland to get on with normal life and politics, using our powers and UK support to work on improving peoples lives in Scotland, normality.
For now, think strategically, vote tactically. Vote for the Anti-Nationalist constituency candidate most likely to win regardless of party. Vote for your Anti-Nationalist party preference in the list vote. Consider only voting Labour or Tory to maximise list seats. Resist minority candidates, the likely outcome of giving them your b]vote is they will lose the major Anti-Nat parties seats. Use your common sense, think about the greater good for Scotland.
#SNPOut
Steve Sayers 29/3/21
Steve Sayers Blog 