The Scottish Deficit Question

I keep asking the question below, I have yet to receive an answer that is considered, not a deflection, not abuse and sensible, or even the start of a sensible debate.

I also think that its ignored and avoided as being to direct.

“Which cuts to spending will an iScot make to offset a £15bn annual deficit?”

I don’t even want, at this stage, to add the additional but undeniable burdens that setup costs, debt servicing costs, currency/central bank costs would add. But, for clarity, if we borrowed at say 3% these together might add another £5bn to our annual spend.

Setup £20bn Debt costs £140bn, currency/bank £10bn £170bn total.

These are definitely arguable figures, but have a look at The Common Weal’s “White Paper 1.0”  to get their take on it.

It will roughly be £5bn over say 20 years to borrow this amount ignoring capital payback.

But I’m ignoring that, as it could be 2 or 6 billion, who knows yet.

So back to the question, how to offset £15bn annually. You may not think it’s £15bn, but, like it or not, our run rate and projections show that it is, its certainly the starting point for an iScot right now.

I won’t get that answer yet and you won’t see my suggestions here either, I would hate to have to deal with this unavoidable economic reality if I had led a successful separation from the UK, or indeed if I was planning one.

Even to match the spending deficit per head in England we would have to offset £12bn.

Screenshot 2017-07-17 11.42.03

 

For the data used in this blog, find your own population stats, mine are accurate, spend sets below;

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/569815/Country_and_Regional_Analysis_November_2016.pdf

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/datasets/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinancesnetfiscalbalancetables

To match the UK and ignore about £940 per head of ongoing setup costs, we would need to cut by £2213 per head, thats tricky, its every man woman and child in Scotland.

To help, laid out below, is the spend per head in Scotland now split by all the spending areas, this will allow you to make choices, good luck.

Steve Sayers 17/7/17 Please share, thanks.

PS if you think defence is the answer, if we eradicate it totally and abandon NATO we would save £625 per head. Stay in NATO? saving zero at required 2% of GDP.

Screenshot 2017-07-17 15.06.50Screenshot 2017-07-17 15.07.01Screenshot 2017-07-17 15.07.13

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