Resource – Scottish GERS Analysis

SCOTTISH TRENDS


This post is intended as a resource for information on GERS.

Please pop back occasionally as this post will be updated over time.

Contributions re analysis and good links are welcome – please leave a comment for consideration or catch me on Twitter @SteveSayers1 (currently suspended due to cybersadnat activity).

Whilst data, tables and charts are from a number of sources, all numbers originate from GERS the official Scottish Government financial statistics.

See the official link here GERS Scottish Government Website

screenshot-2017-01-29-13-59-36

These statistics are prepared by Scottish statisticians for Scotland using the latest data from UK & Scottish sources that all meet the approved criteria from the relevant bodies.

There is a myth that these figures are nothing to do with Scotland and do not represent what an independent Scotland would look like. The same broken “logic” then says they are British not Scottish figures and that any deficit belongs to the rUK.

This is a dangerous fallacy, the figures represent history, a current fiscal snapshot what has just happened, they represent 100% what Scotland’s finances would look like if we were independent.

Another myth re GERS is that historical GERS are incorrectly compiled. Again this is incorrect, GERS goes through an ongoing review process that improves their accuracy, agreed between the Scottish Government and the rUK. Once agreed the improvements are  retrospectively applied to previous GERS publications.

If an independent Scotland wanted to change the current GERS outcomes in any material way, significant changes would be required to both spending and taxation.

It is these proposed changes that are not available and publications like the White Paper singularly failed to explain. Yes we can stop contributing to Trident and defence, but those amounts are a fly on an elephants backside.

Thanks to @edglasgow69 for the cumulative GERS statistics posted below the chart;

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£Income £Expenditure £Deficit £Gross Domestic Product 1999 – 2016 £Millions

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screenshot-2017-01-29-13-45-43

screenshot-2017-01-29-13-46-00

screenshot-2017-01-29-13-46-13

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Further reading;

Faser Of Allender Institute GERS 2016

GERS A story in graphs – Kevin Hague

GERS Deniers Kevin Hague

Margaret Cuthbert Common Space

Institute For Fiscal Studies

BBC

Public Finance

Wings Over Scotland Bollocks

@SteveSayers1 29/Jan/17

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