Can Scotland become a member of the EU post a Yes vote?

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Short answer is anything is possible.
Right answer is extremely unlikely in the near or medium term.

The SNP assumed in (it’s) White Pap(er) that iScotland would automatically be able to join EU (Article 48) as “we” are already EU citizens. They seem to forget or ignore that the UK is the member state, if we separate the UK will be the continuator state, cUK, we will be brand new, with no track record of fiscal responsibility. We will need to become a recognised state in our own right and establish credit ratings, apply for membership of international organisations.

If we vote to secede we will have to resolve the currency issue ASAP. It’s highly unlikely we will get a CU with the cUK, so we may just “use” the £ (see my other note re CU). If an unlinked or new currency is problematic, do we use the Euro? Remember it’s flakier than £ (will be for years). Also remember new members of the EU have to adopt the Euro, so not a good start to negotiations when we have a free choice of which currency to choose (ignoring fiscal and economic fallout) and we reject the Euro! That will not endear us to them.

EU Member states have been deathly quite on our membership, no single country of the 28 has said they will help us to join, is that not incredible! Not one! What has been said by senior EU officials is that it is very UNLIKELY that we can join, why is the SNP not hearing or responding properly to this? They just say “we can” it’s childish in the face of real resistance.

José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, said that it would be “extremely difficult, if not impossible” for the EU to agree on granting membership to Scotland after independence. He will have taken advice. Swinny calling his opinion preposterous is stupid http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad3dd392-96fb-11e3-809f-00144feab7de.html

The 28 will not unanimously vote to let us in (needs to be unanimous) because of all the existing secessionist difficulties within member states.

It’s my belief that we would not be able to match the cUK deal with the EU even if we did get in (and who knows how long entry would take) and one of the key reasons for our entry was the cross border pensions changes. The EU has decided to reject changes, so all cross border pensions need full funding, a huge fiscal black hole for iScotland http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26771173

If we separate will cUK vote yes (providing they are still members)? How long will negotiation take even before we get to a vote? So many unanswered questions that breathtakingly assume we independence voters are stupid, that we only relate to the loudest “proudest” rant.

What is being missed is that entry will be a political decision and to date no serious politicians with influence in the EU support our rapid entry. Only one member state has to vote no and we do not get in, our proposed secession is anti EU ambitions, they want harmonisation and enlargement, we are charging in the other direction towards the Balkanisation that terrifies them.

Links: Read them all for informed opinion.

A very balanced article with further links http://bit.ly/1coTsxK

Here is EU official view from Scottish Parliament site http://goo.gl/4jjTQ4

From UK http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/economic-affairs/ScottishIndependence/

EA68_Scotland_and_the_EU_Barroso’s_reply_to_Lord_Tugendhat_101212.pdf

http://www.city.ac.uk/news/2014/apr/scotlands-independence-and-eu-membership

Scot Gov professional guidance http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmscotaf/uc140-xiii/uc140xiii.pdf

EU blocks legal opinion http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/schulz-blocks-advice-on-eu-membership.23625038

UK Formal evidence https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/79408/Annex_A.pdf

Westminster responds to EU question http://fw.to/GrEvQUJ

Scottish Law opinion https://www.lawscot.org.uk/media/647741/scotlands%20constitutional%20future%202013_main.pdf

https://stevensayers.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/iscotland-onward-into-europe-19914/

Steve Sayers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10367759/Alex-Salmond-spent-20000-keeping-secret-non-existent-EU-legal-advice.html

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5 thoughts on “Can Scotland become a member of the EU post a Yes vote?

  1. Secession states is can of worms most EU member states do not wnat to open. There has been lots of talk about Spain (some Yes people even seemed to think that this was Barosso’s motivation – even though he is Portuguese) but none about Belgium. A precedent of problem-free secession would be a grave threat to Belgium’s continuing existence.

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  2. What a lot of drivel.

    You could at least pretend to be at least remotely impartial if you’re picking and choosing things to support your argument.

    The fact of the matter is, we are all currently EU citizens, rUK will be the continuing state but that does not change the fact that we are already EU citizens and will continue to be both Scottish AND British citizens in the even of a Yes vote, we aren’t going to suddenly cease to be British citizens and subjects as much as people like to wrongly purport.

    Scotland *could* join the EU straight away, the thing is NOBODY KNOWS – David Cameron could easily ask for a formal ruling on the matter but he’s been readily avoiding doing so even though it would confirm doubts from both sides and put the matter do rest.

    An independent Scotland would NOT have to use the Euro if they were to join the EU as a new entity, using the Euro as a currency is a fully voluntary point that you must willingly agree to, Sweden for example still uses the Swedish Krona, you just must agree to use the Euro at some point in the future although nobody can or will make you – the ERM II which is a requirement for adopting the Euro is voluntary and this is why Sweden can continue using the Krona rather than the Euro.

    The currency issue is purposely being left by the UK as an ‘unknown’ and ‘potential issue’, that’s essentially the entire campaign ‘Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t’ and that frankly doesn’t cut it anymore, hell, even sources form within HM Treasury and the Conservative/LibDem coalition are saying that it’s just a campaign tactic and they would obviously be fully willing to negotiate on the matter.

    EU member states have been quiet for a reason, it’s not an issue for them. The only country that would have an issue is Spain due to, as you mentioned, the Catalonian state that wishes to secede from Spain.

    Spain has already said that they would not interfere with an application from an independent Scotland:

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/977a39ea-8c26-11e3-9b1d-00144feab7de.html#axzz2yTL7T17u

    Comments from Barroso are irrelevent anyway, it’s not down to him and many other officials disagree with his opinion including the former European Commission director general, Jim Currie and Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive of the European Policy Centre – they say that Scotland would not have an issue with EU membership:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26278237
    http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/what-future-scottish-eu-relationship

    The fact of the matter is, it’s without precedent and there aren’t any rules set in place for this sort of event – everything is just opinion.

    As for pensions, there are already plans set out by the Scottish Government to handle this and the Scottish Government has also tried to get David Cameron to instigate formal talks with the commission so more planning can be made but David Cameron being his usual self isn’t doing much in the way of discussion.

    You make quite a few jumps and assertions of opinion as fact which don’t really help the debate.

    You talk with the same tired rhetoric as the Better Together officials regarding the EU and try to make it sound like the only way for Scotland to remain in the EU is be part of the UK – the same UK that is becoming overly hostile towards the EU south of the border with a huge surge of support for UKIP and Conservatives to cut ties with the EU.

    There is a current internal war within the Tory party with more than half of Tory backbenchers ready to make personal pledges to voters to leave the EU.

    You can’t say ‘Oh but the UK is in the EU and Scotland might possibly not get in as easily’ when English support is heavily favouring leaving the EU at the same time.

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    1. I don’t pretend, do not prevaricate and I am definitely not impartial, can’t you read? But my points are correct, read the formal letters in my Europe post, It’s the same as the currency issue, separatists conflate using the pound with having a formal currency union, the EU has no problem with us going indy, they just WILL NOT contemplate any or easy re entry, try reading the post/s calmly. I will vote no.

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