Short answer is anything is possible.
Right answer is extremely unlikely in the near or medium term.

The SNP assumed in (it’s) White Pap(er) that iScotland would automatically be able to join EU (Article 48) as “we” are already EU citizens. They seem to forget or ignore that the UK is the member state, if we separate the UK will be the continuator state, cUK, we will be brand new, with no track record of fiscal responsibility. We will need to become a recognised state in our own right and establish credit ratings, apply for membership of international organisations.

If we vote to secede we will have to resolve the currency issue ASAP. It’s highly unlikely we will get a CU with the cUK, so we may just “use” the £ (see my other note re CU). If an unlinked or new currency is problematic, do we use the Euro? Remember it’s flakier than £ (will be for years). Also remember new members of the EU have to adopt the Euro, so not a good start to negotiations when we have a free choice of which currency to choose (ignoring fiscal and economic fallout) and we reject the Euro! That will not endear us to them.

EU Member states have been deathly quite on our membership, no single country of the 28 has said they will help us to join, is that not incredible! Not one! What has been said by senior EU officials is that it is very UNLIKELY that we can join, why is the SNP not hearing or responding properly to this? They just say “we can” it’s childish in the face of real resistance.

José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, said that it would be “extremely difficult, if not impossible” for the EU to agree on granting membership to Scotland after independence. He will have taken advice. Swinny calling his opinion preposterous is stupid http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad3dd392-96fb-11e3-809f-00144feab7de.html

The 28 will not unanimously vote to let us in (needs to be unanimous) because of all the existing secessionist difficulties within member states.

It’s my belief that we would not be able to match the cUK deal with the EU even if we did get in (and who knows how long entry would take) and one of the key reasons for our entry was the cross border pensions changes. The EU has decided to reject changes, so all cross border pensions need full funding, a huge fiscal black hole for iScotland http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26771173

If we separate will cUK vote yes (providing they are still members)? How long will negotiation take even before we get to a vote? So many unanswered questions that breathtakingly assume we independence voters are stupid, that we only relate to the loudest “proudest” rant.

What is being missed is that entry will be a political decision and to date no serious politicians with influence in the EU support our rapid entry. Only one member state has to vote no and we do not get in, our proposed secession is anti EU ambitions, they want harmonisation and enlargement, we are charging in the other direction towards the Balkanisation that terrifies them.

Links: Read them all for informed opinion.

A very balanced article with further links http://bit.ly/1coTsxK

Here is EU official view from Scottish Parliament site http://goo.gl/4jjTQ4

From UK http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/economic-affairs/ScottishIndependence/



Scot Gov professional guidance http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmscotaf/uc140-xiii/uc140xiii.pdf

EU blocks legal opinion http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/schulz-blocks-advice-on-eu-membership.23625038

UK Formal evidence https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/79408/Annex_A.pdf

Westminster responds to EU question http://fw.to/GrEvQUJ

Scottish Law opinion https://www.lawscot.org.uk/media/647741/scotlands%20constitutional%20future%202013_main.pdf


Steve Sayers